Roadmap to Disaster: Why nobody will buy a car in 15 years

Last year, I published this scenario on blog.futuremanagementgroup.com. If I look at it today and reconsider my projects in recent months, it seems even more relevant today. What do you think?


With the Ford Model T, mass motorization began more than 100 years ago. The carriage-dominated street scene was to change completely from 1908 within a few years. By the end of the 1920s, Tin Lizzie was sold by the millions. Many coachbuilders and companies went bankrupt. Some, the more far-sighted, developed into wagon factories, tram companies or car dealers. Motorized private transport has left its mark on the 20th century – a model of success. Now, the automotive industry itself is facing the biggest change in its history. In 15 years, no one will enter a car dealership or buy a car. Those born today may be the first generation without driver’s license.

What will happen? A conceivable roadmap …

Scenario overview: click to enlarge
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Let’s Go

Enno Däneke

I will be writing on my personal and professional opinion on different topics. I will also report on some of my projects and the companies I work for. 

I am looking forward for your coments and remarks.