In retrospect, the early 2020s will mark the beginning of the end of motorized private transport and the internal combustion engine. The automotive industry is facing massive changes, as the mobility world of the 2030s will be a different, radically data-based and service-oriented one. In the worst scenario, German automakers are suppliers to the big US IT giants.
Electromobility and autonomous driving will come. I remember well that even in leading automotive companies this statement was fundamentally questioned just a few years ago. Today, this statement is a common industry assumption. The disagreement in leadership teams remains only about the speed of change and the urgency of action.
politicians are still talking about a bright future for the diesel
engine, but the leaders of successful automotive companies, suppliers
and mobility service providers are already setting their companies up to
the next era.
transformation needs a clear vision. Even in turbulent times, it gives a
company the orientation, orientation and clarity it needs to respond to
external changes and not only survive the change, but actively
participate in shaping it. It gives each individual employee an answer
to the questions “Where do we want to go, who do we want to be in the
future, what do we want to achieve in X years?”
There are many forecasts and scenarios for the future of mobility. On which can you really build your vision and strategy as an entrepreneur or manager? How will we really be mobile in the future? Rationally we all know that we can not predict the future. And yet, we all have this – perhaps somewhat naïve – desire to be able to foretell it. In my work with leadership teams, I often do a little experiment at the beginning of the collaboration: I ask each member of the executive board to note for themselves which are the three most important market changes of the coming ten years are. Then I ask a second question: Which changes will not occur, event though the are currently discussed? Where will the market still be exactly like today? Then we compare the opinions. The result is almost always: chaos – at least to a degree.
Last year, I published this scenario on blog.futuremanagementgroup.com. If I look at it today and reconsider my projects in recent months, it seems even more relevant today. What do you think?
With the Ford Model T, mass motorization began more than 100 years ago. The carriage-dominated street scene was to change completely from 1908 within a few years. By the end of the 1920s, Tin Lizzie was sold by the millions. Many coachbuilders and companies went bankrupt. Some, the more far-sighted, developed into wagon factories, tram companies or car dealers. Motorized private transport has left its mark on the 20th century – a model of success. Now, the automotive industry itself is facing the biggest change in its history. In 15 years, no one will enter a car dealership or buy a car. Those born today may be the first generation without driver’s license.